Lance Franklin celebrates as the Hawks win their 2012 preliminary final. New stats suggest they are the team to beat next season. Source: Herald Sun
Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson announces Brian Lake has been traded to the Hawks and boosted their defensive powers. Picture: Nicole Garmston. Source: News Limited
THE flag is Hawthorn's to lose, according to a new list-ranking system devised by the AFL's official statisticians.
Champion Data says Alastair Clarkson will coach the most talented list in 2013 as the Hawks seek redemption for last season's heartbreak at the hands of Sydney.
The 2013 AFL Prospectus - the ultimate number-cruncher for football fanatics - has laid bare the quality of each club's playing roster.
Using Champion Data rankings points as a base, for the first time players who played at least five games in the last two years have been given a value.
The top ranked player in each position is rated at 100 points and the bottom rated at zero points, with every other player assessed relative to those in the same position and scaled to fit in-between.
Gold Coast's Gary Ablett, for example, is the top-ranked midfielder and judged to be worth 100 points. The fact the next best onballer, Collingwood's Scott Pendlebury, is back on 92 points highlights how far ahead Ablett is.
Hawthorn's galaxy of stars has given it an average player rating of 56.34 - ranked No.1 in the AFL. The Hawks have star power on every line and have taken their vulnerable defence to a No.2 ranking by acquiring Brian Lake.
But the sleeping giant may well be West Coast, who rank second on the quality index at 54.98. The Eagles bat deep, with 17 players ranking in the top 35 per cent of their positions - two more than any other club.
Premier Sydney sit third with an equal league-low 28 players fitting the five-game criteria in the last two years, highlighting its injury management or good luck.
Incredibly, the Swans have only five players - Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh, Andrejs Everitt, Gary Rohan and Lewis Jetta - who were taken in the top 20 of a national draft when originally brought into the AFL system.
They have killed the bottom-out theory up.
Fremantle are a surprise fourth, driven by a much-improved midfield and a forward line ranked third in the competition despite a lack of key position power.
Collingwood sit fifth, but look ominous. The battle-hardened Pies are now the No.1 list for experience, while remaining only the fifth oldest.
The Magpies boast the best midfield in the AFL with Pendlebury and Dane Swan, but there are questions over their forward line, which ranks just 14th.
Carlton is ninth on the quality ladder and while its midfield strength is no secret (ranked third), its forward line was surprisingly judged to be the second-best in the league.
Jarrad Waite, Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett boost the Blues' rating, but with Waite often injured and without a legitimate back-up, lack of depth may become an issue.
- 2013 AFL PROSPECTUS order at championdata.com.au for $39.95 (RRP). Free delivery for pre-orders before Christmas (within Australia). Deliveries around mid-January, in bookstores February.
HOW YOUR CLUB RATES
ADELAIDE
Defenders 6th
Midfield / Rucks 4th
Forwards 7th
LIST QUALITY 6th
-
BRISBANE
Defenders 9th
Midfield / Rucks 14th
Forwards 15th
LIST QUALITY 14th
-
CARLTON
Defenders 14th
Midfield / Rucks 3rd
Forwards 2nd
LIST QUALITY 9th
-
COLLINGWOOD
Defenders 5th
Midfield / Rucks 1st
Forwards 14th
LIST QUALITY 5th
-
ESSENDON
Defenders 7th
Midfield / Rucks 10th
Forwards 5th
LIST QUALITY 8th
-
FREMANTLE
Defenders 10th
Midfield / Rucks 5th
Forwards 3rd
LIST QUALITY 4th
-
GEELONG
Defenders 1st
Midfield / Rucks 8th
Forwards 12th
LIST QUALITY 7th
-
GOLD COAST
Defenders 15th
Midfield / Rucks 17th
Forwards 16th
LIST QUALITY 16th
-
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Defenders 16th
Midfield / Rucks 18th
Forwards 18th
LIST QUALITY 18th
-
HAWTHORN
Defenders 2nd
Midfield / Rucks 9th
Forwards 1st
LIST QUALITY 1st
-
MELBOURNE
Defenders 12th
Midfield / Rucks 16th
Forwards 8th
LIST QUALITY 13th
-
NORTH MELBOURNE
Defenders 11th
Midfield / Rucks 11th
Forwards 9th
LIST QUALITY 11th
-
PORT ADELAIDE
Defenders 18th
Midfield / Rucks 12th
Forwards 17th
LIST QUALITY 17th
-
RICHMOND
Defenders 13th
Midfield / Rucks 6th
Forwards 6th
LIST QUALITY 10th
-
ST KILDA
Defenders 8th
Midfield / Rucks 13th
Forwards 13th
LIST QUALITY 12th
-
SYDNEY
Defenders 3rd
Midfield / Rucks 2nd
Forwards 11th
LIST QUALITY 3rd
-
WEST COAST
Defenders 4th
Midfield / Rucks 7th
Forwards 4th
LIST QUALITY 2nd
-
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Defenders 17th
Midfield / Rucks 15th
Forwards 10th
LIST QUALITY 15th
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