Could Troy be the next Selwood?

Central District's Troy Menzel is waiting for his future to be decided in the upcoming draft. Picture: Sarah Reed. Source: The Advertiser

BUST or steal? That is the big question hovering over one of SA football's brightest draft prospects just five days out from a talent lottery that will shape the future of the 18 AFL clubs.

Will exciting Central District forward Troy Menzel be the next Beau Dowler or the next Joel Selwood?

Hawthorn punted on Dowler - who suffered three pelvic fractures in a car accident just before his drafting - at pick six at the 2005 national draft. He was delisted five years later after playing just 16 games.

Selwood - once considered a possible No. 1 pick - slipped to Geelong at No. 7 at the 2006 national draft after missing most of his last junior season following a knee reconstruction, which clubs thought could impact on his future.

He is now the Cats' captain, one of the stars of the game and has played in a remarkable three premierships in his six years.

Clubs face a similar dilemma with Menzel, who has a history of knee problems.

He underwent LARS surgery at 16 on his right (non-kicking) leg, strained a posterior cruciate ligament playing for the Bulldogs in this year's SANFL finals series and has a brother, Geelong's Daniel Menzel, who is recovering from a second knee reconstruction in two years.

It is understood no high-profile player in this year's draft pool is harder to get a line on than the 187cm Menzel, whose game has been likened to that of Cats star Steve Johnson.

SA under-18 coach Brenton Phillips says scans on Menzel's knees will in the next few days be "the most viewed in Australia".

"Clubs will look at that many X-rays and scans of it in the lead-up to the draft, it will be unbelievable," Phillips said.

"They will do every bit of homework they need to do on him - because using a first-round pick on a player is a big investment.

"Talent-wise, Troy is definitely worthy of a top pick."

Menzel, 18, has been tipped to be selected anywhere from pick three (to Greater Western Sydney) to 16 (Geelong).

Former Crows recruiting manager Matt Rendell - who will join Collingwood at the end of the year but will sit out this draft - described Menzel as one of the most intriguing players on offer.

He noted how current AFL players David Rodan (Melbourne) and Nick Malceski (Sydney) have had second knee reconstructions following LARS surgery.

"Everyone knows he can play but just how big is the (injury) risk?" Rendell said of Menzel. "The thing with knees is that, like shoulders, structurally, they can be genetic, which is a concern.

"So do you roll the dice and take him early or does he get overlooked and some club finds itself getting a steal?"

Port Adelaide could be in a position to draft Menzel at pick seven. It overlooked Selwood at pick five in 2006 - instead taking another midfielder, Travis Boak.