Blues bring big hitters to table

Australia Post chief Ahmed Fahour has officially joined Carlton's board. Picture: Nicole Garmston Source: Herald Sun

AUSTRALIA Post chief Ahmed Fahour and Pricewaterhouse Coopers boss Luke Sayers have been officially added to Carlton's bulging board.

Australia Post chief executive Ahmed Fahour and Pricewaterhouse Coopers boss Luke Sayers have been officially added to Carlton's bulging board.

Its members now total 13 -- the most across the league -- with businessmen Ryan Trainor and Craig Mathieson, the nephew of pokies benefactor Bruce Mathieson, also appointed at last night's meeting.

One of Fahour or Sayers will replace Stephen Kernahan as president at the end of next season under a peace plan agreed upon last month.

Kernahan had been under pressure to keep his job, despite the signing of coach Mick Malthouse.

"This brings about orderly change while introducing new people and fresh ideas to the board table," Kernahan said last night as Carlton's new-look board met for the first time at Visy Park last night.

Mark Harrison and Ari Suss have retired, while Jeanne Pratt will remain as vice-president for 2013.
 

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Umpires wired for in-game coaching

AFL umpires, including multiple grand final whisteblower Brett Rosebury, could receive in-game coaching from their mentors via a two-way radio under a plan proposed by former Adelaide coach Neil Craig. Picture: Stuart Milligan Source: Herald Sun

NEIL Craig failed to put his Crowbots on remote control when he was Adelaide coach, but he has convinced the AFL to do more with its wired-up umpires.

AFL umpires will trial during the NAB Cup pre-season series taking messages from their coaches sitting in the grandstands.

Craig, who is currently the high-performance director at Melbourne, sold the idea to the AFL after sitting in the umpiring observers' box during the past season.

He questioned why the umpires - who are wired up to take direction on score reviews - are not sent direct messages from their coaches.

AFL football operations chief Adrian Anderson thought the concept sound enough to merit a trial in the pre-season competition starting in February.

"Neil was saying, 'You could've helped that umpire by alerting him to this or that or telling him he needs to adjust his positioning - why don't you talk to them?"' Anderson said.

Craig trialled sending direct messages to his players at training in 2008 when he was coaching Adelaide.

The concept never developed beyond training because the AFL objected to players being wired-up.

Anderson says the radio messages from AFL umpiring director Jeff Gieschen and coaches Rowan Sawers, Hayden Kennedy and Bryan Sheehan are not to influence umpires' decisions.

"It wouldn't be telling them what decisions to make or anything like that, it'd just be in terms of their positioning, or anything they might need to look out for," he said.

"They might say, 'You need to keep your eyes on what's happening in the goalsquare'."

The trial in the NAB Cup will determine if the concept becomes a routine for umpires in the premiership season.
 

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Training is no sweat for Ablett

Suns skipper Gary Ablett made a brief appearance at the start of Gold Coast pre-season training yesterday. Picture: David Clark Source: Gold Coast Bulletin

HE barely raised a sweat, but Gary Ablett made a brief cameo at Gold Coast training yesterday.

The Suns started their pre-season campaign in sweltering heat at Carrara's Metricon Stadium and despite not being required to attend, Ablett made a short appearance to boost his troops.

The Gold Coast captain cut an upbeat figure as he participated in handball and goalkicking drills before retiring to get treatment on a stiff back.

Ablett and the Suns' playing list will leave for the US on Sunday for their two-week high-altitude training camp in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Gold Coast coach Guy McKenna said he was not surprised to see Ablett show his face.

"He's done it every year he's been captain," McKenna said.

"He's had his break, he's out here ... he understands.

"It's typical of Gazza's keenness to make sure we finished off the season well last year, and to maintain that momentum."

Trade targets Tom Hickey and Josh Toy did not train yesterday even though players with less than eight years' experience were required to attend.

Hickey is seeking a trade to St Kilda while Toy has attracted interest from several clubs.

The Suns unveiled the last addition to the coaching panel for 2013 yesterday with 2005 Sydney premiership player Ben Mathews joining former Carlton assistant Mark Riley and ex-Port Power senior coach Matthew Primus as the newcomers to McKenna's staff.
 

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Lake building up for a big year

In this file picture, Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson announces Brian Lake has been traded to Hawthorn from the Western Bulldogs. Picture: Nicole Garmston. Source: News Limited

HAWTHORN'S prized trade Brian Lake is already hard at work in the gym at Waverley Park.

Club football manager Mark Evans said the former Western Bulldogs full-back wanted to make an impression when pre-season training resumed next month.

"He's keen to make a really positive start and he's chipping away slowly at a strength program," Evans said.

"His season finished earlier than ours, so he's ready and back doing mostly weight training.

"We've got a few players doing a few things, but he's obviously four weeks further rested than most of our guys.

"We've got quite a few guys who are off enjoying the sun somewhere.

"But some of the guys who are in Melbourne are still calling in to continue with their strength programs or rehab programs."

The Hawks nabbed Lake in one of the surprise early trade deals, and the dual All-Australian will provide height and strength to the backline next year.

"It was well publicised that there were a couple of games during the year where we could have used Brian," Evans said.

In other news, Hawthorn is leading the fight for AFL clubs to get more information on the formula used to decide free agency compensation.

The Hawks are still studying whether they can challenge receiving draft pick No.66 in return for running defender Clinton Young's move to Collingwood.

"We'll go back through our documentation to see whether there's (grounds) for an appeal or not," Evans said.

"There doesn't appear to be one at first look."

Evans said clubs wanted more details about the new system, claiming they are "flying blind" when not even being aware of an offer to a player who is an unrestricted free agent, which was the case with Young.

"We'll all get used to it, but we need to have a system that has some equity in it," he said.

"And we need to be able to understand why some things come out the way they do.

"I know it was an agreement between the AFL and the Players' Association and that the formula be kept secret, but it doesn't help us understand the system.

"We certainly need some better detail on why we ended up getting pick 66 for Clinton Young."
 

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Plenty of life left in the Big O

Orren Stephenson is not giving up on his AFL dream despite being delisted by Geelong. Picture: Peter Ristevski Source: Geelong Advertiser

ORREN Stephenson is hopeful his AFL fairytale has another chapter left in it despite his departure from Geelong.

The mature-aged recruit played eight games this season with the 'Big O' becoming a crowd favourite, but the drafting of Hamish McIntosh meant his services are now no longer required.

Stephenson holds no grudge towards the Cats, but believes he will be a better AFL player next year.

"I understood that they thought the best thing for the footy club is to go for a guy who is younger and played some really good AFL footy," he said.

"That's the ebs and flow of it and you have to roll with the punches. They were certainly forthright with it so I understood where they were looking to go.

"But there is still an urge there (to play AFL).

"The biggest thing is that now I've got a little bit of experience and I know there is still improvement in me.

"Even though people will say, 'He's old, he's 30', I know I've definitely got more improvement in me so I'll see what pans out."

After playing in three consecutive VFL flags with North Ballarat, Stephenson was taken by the Cats with pick No.78 in last year's national draft to cover the retirement of Brad Ottens.

He made his AFL debut in Round 1 against Fremantle and played six games in the first half of the season before breaking back for two at the business end.

However, a broken hand suffered against West Coast in Round 20 was a blow.

Stephenson returned for the VFL finals series and led the Cats to the premiership, his fourth in five years.

"Twelve months ago if someone had said. 'You will play a season of AFL footy, win another VFL flag and improve your footy', I would never have believed them," he said.

"I've been very blessed, I've played Friday night footy on the 'G against Hawthorn and it was all very exciting times.

"The biggest thing I got out of it was that I certainly know I am capable of playing AFL footy.

"You used to sit back and wonder if I got that opportunity, would I go alright? Now, I know I'm capable."

Stephenson, a father of three, who works as a Telstra technician in Ballarat, has put his life on hold as he waits to see if opportunity comes knocking again.

"I've said to my employer, who has been terrificly supportive, that if the opportunity arises again I'm not going to say no," he said.
 

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It's tricky to get the right formula

AFL fixture consultant Rick Stone (far right). Source: Supplied

YOUR typical state lottery may require you to pick six numbers out of 50 to win the jackpot.

Statistically, this means selecting the correct combination of six numbers out of 50. You would have a one in 15,890,700 chance of winning.

That's how many different ways there are of selecting 6/50.

Compare this with the AFL's fixture lists. We have 18 clubs. Each club can play in one of 34 possible matches per week -- 17 home against the other clubs and 17 away against the other clubs.

In addition, each of those matches can be on any one of the nine different TV slots each round. As well, many of the clubs can host matches in a variety of stadiums, on average about two stadiums per club.

Altogether we are dealing with 18 clubs x 34 match-ups x 9 TV slots x 2 stadiums x 23 rounds, which equals a little over 250,000 possible choices.

From those 250,000 choices, the AFL must select the correct combination of 198 matches that best meets the collective needs of the clubs, the fans, the stadiums, and broadcasters.

I have yet to find a calculatorthat can handle a number as large as this. The answer is always infinity.

Even trying to select 198 matches out of 1000 game options gives me the number 4.1e+214. That is 4.1 with 214 zeros behind it.

I can only imagine that selecting 198 out of 250,000 is infinitely bigger than this number. It's like trying to find the "best" grain of sand on a beach.

Rick Stone is president of Optimal Planning Solutions, the AFL's fixture consultant
 

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Calculating the perfect fixture

Calculating the perfect AFL season fixture is no easy task, according to a leading international numbers guru. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun

GRAB a pen and a piece of paper and start trying to nut out if the AFL fixture is as good as it could possibly be.

You'll soon discover it's an impossible task. The maths is so complex it would take billions of years - and even that's a guesstimate by an international numbers guru.

Footy's countless number of agreements, contracts, broadcast deals and player welfare rules make producing the footy fixture a logistical nightmare - mathematically the hardest in world sport.

At the heart of the dilemma is AFL economics - maximising the TV ratings and attendances.

But this needs to be balanced against fairness, six and seven-day breaks for the combatants and sharing the riches among all the clubs.

According to one club figure, the difference between a Friday night fixture and a Sunday twilight match for Collingwood could be $500,000.

For North Melbourne, it could be $200,000.

Big numbers and a lot to compute.

That's where Rick Stone and his Canadian-based software firm Optimal Planning Solutions come to the rescue.

Since 2006, Optimal has assisted the AFL in balancing the endless number of fixture factors.

"Suffice to say, it is an impossibly large number of possible fixture lists that need to be evaluated by the AFL," Stone says.

"Our software, in conjunction with a commercial mathematical solver and state-of-the-art computers, which have between 24 and 80 cores each, allows the AFL to efficiently evaluate the many different possibilities in a much more finite time period."

In layman's terms, that means Optimal's computers are fast - a top personal laptop would have about four cores.

"The AFL, with the use of our software, has built a scoring system that will give penalties for undesirable things," Stone says.

"So you might have situations where a club has back-to-back long travels, or multiple road games in a row ... or fixtures on specific TV networks that aren't as appealing as others."

The end result is the best possible result - because there's simply no such thing as a perfect draw in the AFL.

"You can kind of equate it to trying to find a star in a solar system or a grain of sand on the beach. It really is a mind-boggling number," Stone says.

Stone now knows a lot about Australian football - he has been to two Grand Finals - and is well aware of the politics behind every AFL fixture.

"In general terms, with the leagues that we've been dealing with, if you've got a salary cap in the league, the teams should be pretty even regardless," he said.

"And the fact we do the top eight, bottom 10 rule should make it a little bit fairer for clubs that were at the bottom of the ladder (the previous season).

"Every year is a new year. My personal opinion is that you've got a salary cap in the league, so everyone should be on the same footing going into each season."
 

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Supercomputers tackle AFL draw

Eyes on the ball...The AFL fixture has been revealed as the most difficult mathematical problem in world sport. Picture: George Salpigtidis Source: Herald Sun

THE AFL fixture has been revealed as the most difficult mathematical problem in world sport.

As league chiefs prepare to unveil next season's draw, its complexities have been laid bare by the Canadian company that helps devise it.

The AFL uses British Columbian software firm Optimal Planning Solutions to craft its 23-round fixture.

Canvassing every possible combination for the 198- game home-and-away season would take literally billions of years, Optimal's chief told the Herald Sun.

Optimal creates draws for leading competitions across the globe including NFL football, European soccer, the NRL and Super Rugby.

Optimal chief Rick Stone says the AFL's array of agreements surrounding stadiums, clubs, blockbusters, broadcasters, state derbies, themed matches and player welfare made it the hardest fixture to assemble.

The equation is compounded because the league's 18 teams do not play each other twice.

"From a strictly mathematical point of view, the AFL is more difficult (than the 32-team NFL) -- by far," Stone told the Herald Sun.

"There are a lot of rules specific to the clubs, but there are also a lot of rules specific to stadiums and what the broadcasting partners are looking for. And every year they seem to come up with more rules and we assist them in defining the rules and translate that into software."

New fixture "rules" for next year will see top four teams play fewer matches against bottom four sides.

The only exception will be for the Swans, who get two hitouts against Greater Western Sydney.

Another rule sees the non-finalists from this season play a maximum of two return matches against top eight sides from 2012.

Stone said the home-and-away season, with 18 teams and 22 matches a club across 23 rounds, threw up more than 250,000 potential match-ups.

"The size of this model is so incredibly large -- I mean we attempt to look at every possible solution, but in reality, to look at every possible solution for the AFL would probably take billions of years on the fastest computers there are. Billions of years. It is that big," Stone said.

The AFL makes no secret of the fixture's limitations.

"The draw is absolutely compromised, it's unashamedly comprised, but what's really bizarre about the whole thing, and I can't give you any logical explanation, it appears that the best four teams make the top four every year," AFL boss Andrew Demetriou said last year.

Work on the fixture begins in August and Stone says the end result is outstanding considering the complications.

"They come up with some very good results," he said.

"Ten out 10. They really do a wonderful job with it -- in terms of trying to please everybody.

"There are probably hundreds of rules that go into it -- a lot of them are politically-based, some of them are sport-based and some of them are fairness-based.

"A lot of them are about economics, in terms of television and revenue-driving. So you are looking at it from a number of different perspectives.

"You're looking at it from the clubs, stadiums, networks and road teams, because of travel requirements, particularly for some of the more isolated clubs in Western Australia.

"It is almost an infinite number of combinations. Even from one team's perspective -- you talk to the fans, to the stadium manager, to the coach and to the team owner, they are all going to have a completely different idea about what a perfect schedule is."
 

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Saints stuck in trade jam

St Kilda is struggling to find suitable trades to lure West Coast defender Mitch Brown and Gold Coast ruckman Tom Hickey to the club. Picture: Faith Moran Source: PerthNow

ST Kilda is being squeezed from both sides on deals for West Coast defender Mitch Brown and Gold Coast ruckman Tom Hickey.

This year's protracted trade period will conclude at 2pm on Friday and St Kilda still has much of its key business to conclude.

West Coast is refusing to budge on St Kilda's request to include defender Brown, 23, in a trade for homesick Saints midfielder Jamie Cripps, 20.

Eagles list manager Craig Vozzo has told St Kilda to come up with an alternate deal for Cripps, but the Saints are still hopeful.

Brown wants to leave the Eagles but is contracted, so St Kilda cannot hope to lure him back to Melbourne other than via a trade.

West Coast cannot promise Brown more opportunities next year because of its wealth of talls, so St Kilda officials believe he might walk for nothing at the end of 2013 if the Eagles do not relent.

St Kilda leads the charge for Gold Coast ruckman Hickey, 21, but has been told the price is a first-round draft selection.

Hickey has played 12 games for the Suns who believe the exceptional endurance athlete is the modern-day prototype for ruckmen, with capped interchange set to be introduced in 2014.

St Kilda has picks 13, 25, 37, 46 and 57, but while Gold Coast wants pick 13, the Saints believe 25 might get them their man.
 

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Clubs told AFL decisions final

Angry Hawthorn say they feel they have been 'pickpocketed' over the loss of Tom Murphy. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun

THE AFL says there is no avenue for appeal for clubs livid at the compensation they received for departing free agents.

Hawthorn is smarting at receiving pick No.66 for Clinton Young (Collingwood) and nothing for Tom Murphy (Gold Coast).

The Hawks want to talk to the league about being short-changed, but the AFL said yesterday it had "received no formal approach from any club".

Adelaide yesterday said it wanted an explanation from the league about receiving no compensation for Chris Knights (Richmond).

AFL spokesman Patrick Keane said there was no appeals process for clubs.

He said the league already had warned there would be modest compensation, with the criteria for compensation picks being a player's age and contract at his new club.

Under the compensation formula a "committee review" is possible if the formula produced "a materially anomalous result", which could see alternate compensation recommended.

But that process already was used before the picks were released, with no built-in appeals system for upset clubs.

"The compensation comes down to the age and contract offered," Keane said.

"If there are two players who are the same age and there was different compensation for them, it is obvious why it is different.

"The whole purpose of free agency was that if a player leaves, there is not automatic replacement via a draft pick. The (expansion selections) provided much greater compensation because we were adding players to the competition."

Hawthorn was angered by its compensation. Football manager Mark Evans said: "It is like we've been pick-pocketed and somebody has put an old $2 scratchy ticket back in our pocket."

Melbourne also was mystified when it received one third-round selection (49) for Jared Rivers (Geelong) and Brent Moloney (Brisbane Lions).

The Demons lured Geelong's Shannon Byrnes, but considering the league felt he was not worthy of a compensation pick he would not have affected the quality of the pick allocated for Rivers and Moloney. Both are 28, which dilutes the compensation. But Young and Knights - for whom Adelaide received no compensation - are 26.

That formula indicates Young, Rivers and Moloney are on contracts of less money at new clubs than former Port Adelaide players Danyle Pearce (Fremantle) and Troy Chaplin (Richmond).

Port received No. 30 for Pearce and 31 for Chaplin, St Kilda 13 for Brendon Goddard (Essendon) and West Coast 62 for Quinten Lynch (Collingwood).

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